【美国5-8月份猪价行情走势预测】we sometimes wonder how we end up thinking as we do. it is as if we are in a different universe compared to other commentators. last week we read after we wrote our commentary the expectations of others. last week we estimated based on the usda’s march 1 hogs and pigs report, that lean hogs would be 89-98 lean in may-august of 2015. below are other estimates.
正如我们在做的 ， 我们有时候会想我们要如何结束思考 。我们似乎和其它评论家生活在不同的世界 。上周写完评论后 ， 我们读了其他人的预测 。上周 ， 我们根据美国农业部3月1日的生猪报告预测2015年5月—8月的瘦肉猪价格应该在89~98美分之间 。下面是其他人的预测 。
obviously, our expectation is between $35-50 per head higher than others (economists) are. we are not exactly following the crowd. why do we think so different?
很明显 ， 我们每头35~50美元的预测要高于其它(经济学家)的观点 。我们确实没有跟随主流 。为什么我们会有不同的想法?
the us march 1 market hog inventory this year was 124,000 head less than march 1 2014: in 2013 lean hogs averaged 95? lean may-august. same number of hogs in inventory 2015.
今年美国3月1日的生猪存栏是124,000头 ， 比2014年3月1日的数量更低 。2013年5月~8月的瘦肉猪平均价格为95美元 。2015年的生猪存栏量不变 。
us pork cut-outs were 64.44 last thursday. us beef cut-outs 256.40 last thursday. beef cut-outs currently 4 times pork cut-outs. we absolutely believe this spread will narrow as consumers up consumption of pork due to its economic advantage. demand increases prices. we see little reason for beef prices to decline with us beef production down 5% year over year and inventory levels at a record low. if pork cut-outs reach $1.00 beef will still be 2.5 time more expensive.
上周四 ， 美国猪肉切块的价格为64.44美分/lb 。上周四 ， 美国牛肉切块的价格为256.40美分/lb 。牛肉切块价格目前是猪肉切块的4倍 。由于价格优势 ， 我们绝对相信随着消费者增加猪肉的消费 ， 这一差价将会缩小 。需求推高价格 。由于美国牛肉产量下降5%且存栏量处于历史低位 ， 我们认为牛肉价格下跌可能不大 。如果猪肉切块的价格达到1美元 ， 牛肉的价格仍将高出2.5倍 。
the us population is approximately 4 million more people more than in 2013. this increases demand. more people at flat per capita consumption in itself increases demand. 4 million more people will need a minimum extra one million market hogs to meet their average pork demand requirements.
美国人口比2013 年增加约400万 。这增加了需求 。在人均消费量保存不变的情况下 ， 人口的增长将会增加需求 。增加的4百万人口将需求增加至少1百万头猪来满足平均的猪肉需求 。
we also see market weights declining. a year ago, the national lean hog weight this past week was 214.45 lbs., last week this year hog weights are 214.40. lower weights will cut pork supply and help strengthen lean hog prices.
我们还看到上市体重下降 。去年的上一周 ， 全国瘦肉猪体重为214.45 lb 。今年的上一周生猪体重为214.40 lb 。体重下降将减少猪肉供应并有助于提振瘦肉猪价格 。
sow herd expansion is ongoing but it will not effect to any degree the number of hogs going to market in the next five months as they were all born and in place march 1. what we have to sell to market until the end of august are already in pipeline. there are no more pigs than march 1, 2013.
母猪群的扩张正在进行 ， 但这不会影响到未来5个月的生猪出栏数量 。这些情况发生在3月1日 ， 而现在的猪都是过去出生的 。要到8月底 ， 我们才开始出售这些商品猪 。猪的数量并没有比2013年3月1日更多 。
we strongly expect greater exports to china to kick in. huge herd liquidation of 7 million sows, china hog prices double current us hog prices will push pork to china. when it happens, major market mover.
我们非常希望能开始有更多出口到中国 。中国有7百万头母猪的大量淘汰 ， 而中国的生猪价格是目前美国生猪价格的2倍 ， 这将驱动猪肉出口到中国 。这一旦发生 ， 将对市场造成较大的影响 。
other observations
我们的观察
was at the london swine conference this past week. the olymel-quebec packer strike was a major topic as it is causing major havoc in ontario with the loss of 25,000 shackle spaces. we expect this will put a lid on ontario production expansion with ongoing worries where market hogs can fine homes. at some point the strike will be settled but it effect will linger over market consideration for a long time. (news flash – olymel has settled with union, back to work on tuesday)
伦敦养猪大会上周举行 。olymel在魁北克屠宰厂的罢工是一个热门的话题 ， 因为这给安大略省带来了严重破坏 ， 损失了25,000头合同空间 。由于对商品猪出路的持续担心 ， 我们这将会影响安大略的生产扩张 。罢工最终会被解决 ， 但这仍将对市场在很长时间内造成影响 。(最新消息：olymel已经和工会和解 ， 周二复工 。)
interesting video on gestation housing take a look it give a perspective on sow housing many in our industry will agree with.
有一个关于妊娠舍的视频很有趣 ， 值得一看 。这个视频基于母猪舍的视角 ， 我们行业的很多人都会同意 。
on the corn front, usda came out with predictions of more land going into corn than expected. it appears that there will be significant corn and soybeans planted. the wildcard is weather. good weather feed stays reasonable. draught different story. all bets off.
关于玉米的最新消息 ， 美国农业部发布预测称玉米的种植面积比期望的更多 。看上去会有大量的玉米和大豆种植 。决定因素就是天气 。天气好的情况下 ， 饲料就会合理 。干旱则是另外一种情况 。原来的预测全部推翻 。
corn in china is currently 10.50 usd/bushel, soymeal 550 usd/ton. with relatively low sow productivity, high disease levels etc. the combination of feed costs and low productivity is why china’s breakeven is around 85? usd liveweight/lb.
当前的中国玉米价格为每蒲式耳10.5美元 ， 大豆为每吨550美元 。母猪的生产力相对较低 ， 疾病情况严重 。加上饲料成本和低生产效率 ， 这就是为什么中国的保本价在85美分/lb左右 。
not sure how this will effect hog market, but we are hearing stories of ongoing major mortalities in the carolinas from prrs.
不确定这会对生猪市场造成什么影响 ， 但是我们最近听说蓝耳病在卡罗利纳造成了持续大量死亡 。
总结
summary
we are projecting lean hog prices mid 90’s this summer. this is significantly higher than other commentators. we believe market inventory levels, relative to demand both domestic and international will lead to summer prices similar to 2013. mid 90’s.
我们预测今年夏天的瘦肉猪价格在95美分左右 。这明显比其它评论家的预测更高 。我们相信 ， 根据商品猪存栏情况以及国内和国际的需求情况将会使夏季的猪价格和2013年类似 。95美分左右 。
"economists are like computers. they need to have facts punched into them: ~ kenneth boulding"
“经济学家就像电脑 。他们需要输入一些真实数据 。——肯尼思·博尔丁”